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Math that finds the “best” mix can backfire, because it trusts shaky estimates too much.

A smarter starting point: begin with the whole market, then nudge it with your opinions.

Instead of equal dollars, give each holding an equal share of the portfolio’s risk.

Over the long run, stocks have rewarded their stomach-churning ride with extra return.

Real markets have far more extreme days than a tidy bell curve predicts.

A common gauge of “how bad is a bad day” — useful, but it hides the very worst.

We feel losses far more than equal gains — and that warps the choices we make.

Prices reflect a lot of what’s known — but maybe not everything, and not always calmly.

Markets switch between long calm stretches and sudden stormy ones — and fear has a price.

There’s a math-optimal bet size for growth — and most pros deliberately bet less.

A strategy that looks perfect on past data often falls apart in the real world.

Great long-term returns come from durable, high-quality businesses — and judging that takes more than a number.

The only honest test of a strategy is how it does on data you didn’t use to build it.

The big ideas combine into one calm plan: diversify, manage risk, cut costs, and stay disciplined.

A prediction-market price is a real-money bet turned into a probability — useful, but not gospel.